#01Oct 19, 2026
stat.ML
Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Market Making on Prediction-Market Order Books
Skander Lejmi
A market maker provides liquidity by quoting prices to buy and sell an asset, earning the spread while managing inventory risk. We study market makers trained with multi-agent reinforcement learning on prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, whose thin order books pose distinct challenges. Three challenges underpin this research: adverse selection may cause a policy trained on real data to stop quoting; the consequences of a quote can arrive many steps after the action; and prediction-market L2 data does not identify individual orders needed for simulation. We address these challenges by reconstructing order-level LOBSTER-format data from Polymarket and training agents in JaxMARL-HFT on 417 real markets. We enrich the baseline market maker's observation space with the book and recent flow, redesign its actions and inventory controls, and propose a cooperative multi-agent decomposition into a quoter and a risk manager trained using recurrent Independent Proximal Policy Optimisation (IPPO) with RNN policies. We investigate reward shaping, particularly reward blending and post-fill markout, to mitigate credit-assignment difficulties between the agents. Our redesigned single-agent market maker quotes more frequently and incurs smaller held-out losses than the retrained JaxMARL-HFT baseline, although the contributions of jointly changed observations, actions and risk constraints are not separately identified. Decomposition alone performs poorly; careful reward design substantially improves the desk relative to the unshaped split and yields our best result. Models are evaluated on realised end-of-episode portfolio value on held-out markets. None establishes positive average portfolio value in periodic held-out evaluation, and each configuration was trained with one seed. The environment, data and protocol lay a foundation for makers that quote many linked markets at once.
#02Oct 19, 2026
quant-ph
Supervised Learning with Quantum Hamiltonian Embeddings
Riccardo Molteni, Minjun Jeon, Paolo Braccia and 8 more
Machine learning is widely regarded as a promising application in which quantum computing could offer a computational advantage. However, general quantum machine learning models with provable guarantees on performance, trainability, and efficient inference remain limited. In this work, we introduce quantum Hamiltonian embeddings, a supervised learning framework in which a classical training dataset is encoded into a single effective, parameterized Hamiltonian. Training optimizes the parameters of this data-dependent Hamiltonian, whose approximate ground state defines the classification rule. Once the ground state has been approximated using a quantum algorithm, inference can be performed either classically using a classical representation of the learned state, or with a quantum representation of the state. We establish efficient methods for gradient estimation and prove favorable generalization guarantees. Furthermore, under standard cryptographic assumptions, we show that Hamiltonian embeddings can realize hypothesis functions beyond the reach of efficient classical algorithms. We then demonstrate the framework at scale on IBM Heron processors using a standard benchmark dataset. Together, these results establish Hamiltonian embeddings as a new framework for quantum machine learning, combining theoretical guarantees with a path for experimental investigations at scale on quantum hardware.
#03Oct 19, 2026
cs.CL
OpenVLHarness: Real World Visual Agentic Tool-Use with Multimodal Memory
Yu Zhou, Cheng-Fu Yang, Rui Sun and 8 more
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made rapid progress on visual reasoning, yet many tasks require evidence that is difficult to obtain through internal reasoning alone: our controlled study on 22 benchmarks shows that simply increasing the inference budget of the base model yields only modest gains. Such tasks demand grounded perception, external knowledge, and numerical measurements obtained through heterogeneous tools, whose outputs must be made interpretable to the model and retained across reasoning steps. We introduce OpenVLHarness, a multimodal reasoning harness organized around a capability layer and persistent multimodal memory. The capability layer combines task-level tool interfaces with evidence rendering, providing consistent access to heterogeneous backends and converting their outputs into model-readable observations. Persistent multimodal memory retains the corresponding images, structured data, and web references as addressable artifacts throughout each query. A coding interface executes generated programs over stored data, enabling computations that combine results from multiple tools. Together, these mechanisms support an iterative process of acquiring, inspecting, and composing multimodal evidence. Evaluated on 22 benchmarks with eight open and proprietary backbones, OpenVLHarness improves average scores by 9.7-12.6 points over matched no-tool baselines, including +11.2 with Qwen3-VL-8B, +9.7 with Kimi K3, and +9.9 with GPT-6 Astra. With GPT-6 Luna at medium reasoning effort, OpenVLHarness outperforms the base model, Codex, and Visual Sketchpad at maximum effort by 7.7-8.5 points while incurring at most 37% of their model-token cost.
#04Oct 19, 2026
cs.CL
AfriBED: a Speech Recognition Bias Evaluation Dataset for Low Resource African Languages
Claytone Sikasote, Hussein Suleman, Jan Buys
Despite advancements in automatic speech recognition systems (ASR), current systems exhibit speaker-attribute bias, i.e., their speech recognition performance is biased against certain speakers based on their demographic attributes such as gender, accents, and speaker type. However, accurately assessing speaker attribute bias in a given ASR system requires the availability of a bias evaluation dataset with comparable speech across subgroups of a speaker attribute. In this paper, we introduce African speech Bias Evaluation Dataset (AfriBED), a novel speech recognition bias evaluation dataset for two low resource African languages, Bemba and Nyanja, to detect and estimate gender and speaker-type bias for ASR systems. The dataset comprises 9 hours of speech with 3928 utterances recorded by 80 speakers for Bemba, while the Nyanja set includes 6260 utterances with approximately 18 hours of speech recorded by 127 speakers. The results of our baseline experiments demonstrate that the datasets are useful for examining gender and speaker-type attribute bias in the target languages.
#05Oct 19, 2026
cs.AI
Train An Imaginative Agent
Jiaxin Ge, Junyi Zhang, Tianning Chai and 9 more
A seemingly reasonable push in Sokoban can make the puzzle unsolvable. To avoid such mistakes, an agent has to anticipate the consequences of its actions before execution, especially when feedback from the real environment is sparse or actions are irreversible. We introduce Agentic Imagination (Agima), a training framework that trains an agent to imagine before acting, i.e. to be imaginative. Agima trains a single omni model to propose actions, generate images of their outcomes, and then reason over these imagined futures to decide what to execute in the real environment. Rather than committing to a single plan, the agent can simulate a sequence of actions, explore alternatives, and compare possible futures. We first use supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to unify policy and world modeling within a single omni model. This enables the agent to predict future outcomes and perform basic forms of imagination, such as forward thinking and counterfactual branching. We then use agentic reinforcement learning (RL) to teach the agent to reason with its imagined futures and use them effectively for planning. Across four environments spanning Maze2D, Sokoban, Pacman, and PushT, Agima generalizes to harder settings unseen during training. Trained with SFT alone on two-box Sokoban, Agima solves 40% of four-box puzzles while seeing the real board only once every five moves, compared with an action-only planner that only solves 2%. After RL, new behaviors emerge in how Agima uses its imagination: it learns a new unified format that was unseen during the SFT stage, learns to conduct forward thinking only when necessary, and branches more frequently at critical decision points. An agent that can picture where its actions lead can learn when and where to look ahead, that is, to plan. Project page: https://agima.net/.