#01Oct 29, 2026
cs.CV
Soil Moisture Estimation in Precision Agriculture: A Knowledge Distillation Approach
Mohammed Rakib, Vrinda Nagula, Arunkumar Bagavathi
Accurate soil moisture estimation is critical for precision agriculture, influencing irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting strategies. Traditional methods primarily rely on meteorological and soil property data, while recent approaches incorporate visual modalities such as aerial and geospatial imagery. However, these high-resolution images are expensive and computationally demanding to analyze. In this work, we propose Soil Moisture Distillation (SMD), a Knowledge Distillation (KD)-based multimodal learning framework that leverages unimodal teachers to enhance multimodal soil moisture estimation. SMD surpasses not only traditional multimodal fusion techniques, including MIS-ME, but also outperforms unimodal models, demonstrating the benefits of guided unimodal knowledge transfer. Additionally, we conduct a comparative analysis of soil patches and crop images, showing that crop images provide superior visual cues, leading to improved prediction accuracy. SMD achieves a 2% improvement in MAPE for soil patches and 1.2% for crops over state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of leveraging both meteorological and visual data through knowledge distillation for enhanced soil moisture forecasting.
#02Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
Uncertainty-aware Feedback Loop Diagnosis: integrating reinforcement learning and conformal prediction for reliable wafer defect classification
Aleksandr Dekhovich, Carlas Smith, Oleg Soloviev
Semiconductor manufacturing is a complex, multi-step process that requires both high precision and low operating costs. Therefore, detecting defects in a high-volume setting is an important component of wafer map analysis for reliable production. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning approaches require a full scan of the surface, which hinders the development of high-throughput inspection systems. To address this problem, we propose Uncertainty-aware Feedback Loop Diagnosis (UFLD), a novel algorithm that employs reinforcement learning for adaptive measurement acquisition and provides a prediction uncertainty level after each step, stopping the process once sufficient information is obtained. Unlike existing methods that rely on ensemble models or auxiliary confidence estimation deep learning models, UFLD utilizes a more parameter-efficient conformal prediction framework to determine the optimal stopping time. The proposed UFLD reduces acquisition time by about $40\%$ and achieves $98.4\%$ inspection accuracy, without requiring an additional learned confidence-estimation network. We validated our approach on the MixedWM38 dataset, demonstrating its advantages over existing adaptive acquisition procedures and standard convolutional neural networks.
#03Oct 29, 2026
math.ST
Self-regularization and structural adaptation of NPMLE for Gaussian mixture models in all dimensions
Yanjun Han, Yandi Shen, Yihong Wu
We establish structural properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for $d$-dimensional Gaussian mixtures whose means lie in a hypercube. We show that, with high probability, the NPMLE based on $n$ independent observations self-regularizes by fitting a mixture model with $O((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^d)$ components, achieving the optimal model complexity without explicit model selection. Furthermore, the NPMLE exhibits a structural adaptation property: For data drawn from a finite mixture, the number of fitted components is bounded in probability as $n\to\infty$. Our proof applies a multivariate Jensen-type bound to control the typical number of critical points of the KKT function associated with the first-order optimality conditions. The key step is to lower bound its gradient norm uniformly on complex spheres. We establish this lower bound by decomposing the KKT function into an empirical fluctuation term and a relative density estimation error term, combining small-ball probability estimates for the former with polynomial approximation and Hellinger error bounds for the latter.
#04Oct 29, 2026
eess.SY
Adaptive Scenario Generation for KL-DRO Around a Learned Density Model
Aron Brenner, Saurabh Amin
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) hedges data-driven two-stage stochastic programs against error in the distribution estimated from a finite record, and standard ambiguity sets differ in how they treat realizations absent from that record. A divergence ball around the empirical distribution contains only reweightings of the record, whereas a transport ball also contains distributions supported off the record, including on realizations the data-generating process cannot produce, against which the decision is then hedged as well. We instead propose a Kullback-Leibler (KL) ball centered at a density model fitted to the record, the learned nominal, which lets the adversary up-weight costly unobserved realizations in proportion to the probability the model assigns them. Solving the resulting problem poses a second difficulty, because it can accommodate only a few scenarios, and an independent sample of that size is likely to omit the rare realizations on which the worst case concentrates. We therefore build the scenario set adaptively, alternating between solving the finite problem and drawing new realizations from the learned nominal, steered toward the worst case at the current decision, with importance weights that correct the draws back to the model. On a multi-item newsvendor problem and a capacity expansion problem on realistic grid data, centering the ball at the learned nominal rather than at the record lowers cost under distribution shift, at comparable in-distribution cost, when the record is scarce and the model class captures structure that lets it extrapolate beyond the record. The advantage fades as the record grows or as the shift departs from the structure the model has learned.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
Numerical Integration on Bounded Domains via Learned Reflected Diffusions
Kirill Korolev, Artur Goldman, Timofei Gritsaev and 2 more
We study high-dimensional integration on bounded convex domains. Given a non-negative integrand $r$, the goal is to estimate $Z=\int_{D}r(x)\,\mathrm dx$ on $D\subset\mathbb R^d$. Standard Quasi-Monte Carlo does not adapt its evaluation points to the integrand, while effective importance sampling requires a proposal that captures its concentration. Learned diffusion samplers can supply such a proposal, but existing methods are formulated on $\mathbb R^d$ and do not respect the domain constraint $x\in D$. We instead build the proposal from reflected dynamics that stay in $D$ by construction. A reflected diffusion progressively transforms the target distribution toward the uniform distribution on $D$, and a neural score model is trained to reverse this process. A change-of-measure formula for reflected diffusions yields a training objective without additional boundary terms and an unbiased importance-sampling estimator of $Z$. For non-smooth integrands, where reparameterization gradients may be undefined or uninformative, we derive a REINFORCE estimator of the training gradient using Gaussian proposal densities before reflection, without evaluating reflected transition densities or differentiating $r$. We evaluate on numerous synthetic targets and real-world problems, demonstrating strong performance of the proposed method, as well as favorable scaling with the dimension of the problem and the number of points used for the Monte Carlo estimate.