#01Oct 29, 2026
cs.AI
Pre-Crime for Agents, at the Last Second: Probing When a Recruited Agent Gives In
Leonidas Raghav
When AI agents share channels and credentials, one agent can press another to break its operator's rule, a first step towards collusion. Output filters check only what an agent has already written. Can an overseer tell beforehand that an agent is about to give in? We show that a linear probe on the agent's activations can, in a controlled multi-agent setting. Across six scenarios, a peer presses a target for up to 20 rounds to reveal a secret, such as a deploy token; the target often refuses, then gives in. Read at each model call before its output is written, the probe picks out the one that leaks. On held-out Qwen3-32B episodes, at a threshold set to flag 5% of benign calls, it catches 82% of leaking calls. At a similar flag rate, a zero-shot decision-model monitor catches 26%. On gpt-oss-20b, a probe on its reasoning reaches AUROC 0.91. A bag-of-words classifier trained on the same calls comes close, so most of the gain comes from training on labels, not activations. The probe also flags permitted disclosures: it reads the coming disclosure more than the violation. The warning is short-range, and halting on any alarm would stop most benign episodes, which a second text check does not fix. A warning raised before generation could let an overseer stop an agent that is about to give in, ahead of others acting on its messages or recruitment spreading through a swarm.
#02Oct 29, 2026
cs.AI
Collaborative AI agents for autonomous experimental research with solid-state quantum spins
El Mustapha Mansouri, Eikichi Kimura, Masato Koga and 1 more
An autonomous research laboratory could conduct an entire study, from formulating questions to preparing manuscripts. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers one route towards this goal. Recent AI systems take on several research roles, but may draw conclusions that the evidence does not support. Here, we present an autonomous research laboratory in which agents based on large language models assess one another's work and can stop or redirect investigations. They can generate and reject research questions, require separate theoretical checks and conduct experiments designed to challenge their claims. We demonstrate these capabilities by investigating ensembles of quantum spins in diamond. The agents derived the minimum number of calibration settings needed to predict responses to a defined family of microwave pulse sequences. They checked the result computationally and designed experiments to distinguish competing predictions. An initial experiment agreed with the theoretical predictions, but repeated reference measurements showed that the signal was drifting during data collection. The agents therefore treated the result as inconclusive and revised the measurement protocol without relaxing the acceptance criteria. The revised experiment met those criteria and supported the theoretical predictions. This study demonstrates that collaborating AI agents can select research questions, derive theoretical results and test their predictions experimentally.
#03Oct 29, 2026
math.ST
Self-regularization and structural adaptation of NPMLE for Gaussian mixture models in all dimensions
Yanjun Han, Yandi Shen, Yihong Wu
We establish structural properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for $d$-dimensional Gaussian mixtures whose means lie in a hypercube. We show that, with high probability, the NPMLE based on $n$ independent observations self-regularizes by fitting a mixture model with $O((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^d)$ components, achieving the optimal model complexity without explicit model selection. Furthermore, the NPMLE exhibits a structural adaptation property: For data drawn from a finite mixture, the number of fitted components is bounded in probability as $n\to\infty$. Our proof applies a multivariate Jensen-type bound to control the typical number of critical points of the KKT function associated with the first-order optimality conditions. The key step is to lower bound its gradient norm uniformly on complex spheres. We establish this lower bound by decomposing the KKT function into an empirical fluctuation term and a relative density estimation error term, combining small-ball probability estimates for the former with polynomial approximation and Hellinger error bounds for the latter.
#04Oct 29, 2026
cs.CL
When to Assist and What to Suggest: Joint Gating and Memory-Grounded Hint Generation in One Compact Decoder
A. J. A. Jubayer Talukder, Mohammad Ariful Haque
Proactive assistants offer short, memory-grounded hints during a conversation, deciding when to assist and what to suggest. Current systems split this between a gate and a larger generator; we evaluate both together on 28,058 decision points. Stage-wise generation scores are oracle-gate ceilings: behind a real gate, end-to-end exact match is 0.2619 against a ceiling of 0.2971, and end-to-end precision is 0.2387, leaving substantial headroom. A gate pays off through precision and compute, whose saving falls from 4.39x with an 8B generator to 1.38x with a 1B one. The memory profile drives hint quality: removing it costs 24.7 exact-match points (rescaled BERTScore 0.57 to 0.35), while retrieval and a larger generator add nothing on exact match. One 1B decoder can do both, gating from an intermediate layer and generating in the same pass. At its final checkpoint it matches or exceeds the two-model pipelines on automatic end-to-end measures with 1.31-1.76x less wall-clock time than the matched 1B pipeline; across three seeds, its deeper exit ties the separate gate. A human evaluation (1,144 ratings over 32 dialogues) supports the memory effect and rates the single model level with the matched 1B pipeline and below the 8B one. Graded metrics and LlamaPIE's native judge track human ratings more closely than exact match, which we report as a strict lower bound.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.CE
TRACER, a time-to-event EHR foundation model for disease detection across health systems
Mara Pleasure, Ekaterina Redekop, Vedrana Ivezic and 4 more
Foundation models trained on longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) can predict clinical diagnoses years in the future, making them a potential tool for disease screening. We developed TRACER (Temporal Risk Assessment with Clinical EHR Representations), a decoder-based foundation model pretrained on data from over 4.5 million patients from four health systems, and evaluated it on 16 incident diseases at 1-, 2-, and 5-year horizons in more than 2 million patients from two health systems excluded from model development. In contrast to typical evaluations that focus on global metrics (e.g., AUROC), we measured performance at the low false-positive rates that are realistic for screening. We found that TRACER retained its discrimination in external health systems, and at 95% specificity, the patients it flagged were up to eight times more likely to be diagnosed within a year than unselected patients. Evaluating at this operating point also revealed what global metrics alone did not: detection and false-alert burden varied across diseases and health systems, even when discrimination appeared stable. Our results illustrate the potential of foundation models for screening and underscore the need for evaluation in health systems excluded from development to assess disease detection and false-alert burden at levels appropriate for intended clinical use.}