#01Oct 16, 2026
cs.CL
Bridging the Language Gap in Scholarly Data II: Enhancing Gender Inference for Chinese Names
Lisette Espín-Noboa, Mingrong She, Ana Maria Jaramillo and 1 more
Perceived gender inference from names is important for inclusive scientometrics research, yet existing methods perform poorly on non-Western scholars. We address this gap for Chinese names, which appear in two forms, Hanzi and Pinyin, its Romanized form (e.g., Zhang Wei, Li Na). In international bibliographic records, names are often available only in Pinyin. However, a single pinyin name can correspond to multiple distinct hanzi characters with different gender associations, so gender inference from Pinyin alone is intrinsically ambiguous. To address this, we first develop two hanzi models, a regression model that produces a continuous gender score from 0 (male) to 1 (female), and a classification model that outputs one of three labels (\em{male}, \em{neutral}, \em{female}). We train them on a sample of hanzi names from Chinese-language physics publications, rated by 11 native Chinese speakers. On this sample, the models achieve an RMSE of $0.09$ and an R$^2$ of $0.85$ (regression), and macro-AUC of $0.97$ and a Cohen's $κ$ of $0.81$ (classification), demonstrating high performance that is robust to class imbalance. For pinyin names, we propose a pipeline that aggregates hanzi predictions via transliteration and frequency weighting, together with an ambiguity score that flags names whose gender cannot be resolved from Pinyin alone. Benchmarked against three off-the-shelf tools (Namsor, GPT, and Claude), our models achieve the highest agreement with human annotations for both gender scores and gender labels, in both scripts. Applied to an independent sample of Chinese-named authors in APS journals, our models assign a gender to every name, whereas existing Pinyin-based methods leave between 20\% and 100\% of names unclassified. These findings demonstrate the importance of hanzi-level information for reliable gender inference of Chinese names. Code and data are publicly available.
#02Oct 16, 2026
cs.LG
Waiting Buys Exactly Two Moments: Endogenous Identification in Prediction-Driven Allocation
Rama AlHamidi, Rasul Khanbayov, Erchin Serpedin and 1 more
A planner with a fixed budget of preventive help must decide whom to help and when. Waiting reveals risk but removes intervention opportunities as higher-risk individuals leave first. We characterize this tradeoff under repeated noisy signals and risk-dependent attrition: in the canonical model, a length-$τ$ observation prefix identifies exactly the latent risk moments $m_j=\mathbb E[p^j]$ for $j=0,\ldots,2τ-1$, buying two new moments per additional period. These identify average next-period attrition among survivors but need not identify allocation welfare or attrition among those prioritized for treatment. Our observationally equivalent constructions establish unavoidable timing regret at any sample size for a fixed observation length, while exact certificates determine whether all compatible populations share a unique optimal date. Matched experiments separate the effects of estimation, bootstrap averaging, and regret weighting. Longer observation often resolves timing ambiguity, but the optimal date may already have passed. In our experiments, bootstrap averaging and early stopping improve decisions, while regret weighting adds no improvement in pooled mean squared regret: better statistical fit need not yield better allocation welfare. The code and artifacts are available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/waiting-buys-two-moments.
#03Oct 16, 2026
stat.ML
ENFR: Evidence Networks with Flow-Matched References for Amortized Simulation-Based Model Inference
Kai Lehman, Jameson Dong, Carolina Cuesta-Lazaro and 5 more
The evidence, $\mathcal{Z} = p(x | \mathcal{M})$, of a data-generating model $\mathcal{M}$ is a powerful tool in Bayesian frameworks: it enables model inference, model misspecification tests, and goodness-of-fit assessment as an alternative to standard discrepancy statistics, e.g. $χ^2$. While versatile, the evidence is notoriously difficult to compute, even when the likelihood is available. In both likelihood-based and simulation-based inference, estimating $\mathcal{Z}$ provides an immediate solution to high-dimensional goodness-of-fit or model misspecification tests: using $\mathcal{Z}(x)$ as the test statistic induces a minimum-volume level-$α$ test. Such tests are essential to assess model fidelity, which is necessary to trust simulation-based parameter inference. Existing learned approaches largely target Bayes factors, which only measure evidence ratios. Instead, we provide accurate, fast, and amortized estimates of the absolute evidence. We present ENFR: Evidence Networks with Flow-matched References. Building on the Evidence Network framework of Jeffrey & Wandelt (2024), the proposed method first learns Bayes factors with respect to a flow-matched reference, from which the absolute evidence is recovered. We show improvement in estimation of $\mathcal{Z}$ over the flow-based baseline in all applications considered and the best performance of all density estimation methods considered in our benchmarks. We furthermore introduce and provide the proof for an architecture that jointly learns the individual evidences of a set of models $\{\mathcal{M}_i\}$. We demonstrate the performance and scaling behavior of these approaches on data from a variety of scientific applications.
#04Oct 16, 2026
cs.CL
Beyond the Answer: Student-Conditioned Trace Construction for Reasoning Distillation
Shaoang Li, Yanhang Shi, Yufei Li and 6 more
A reasoning trace can accompany a correct answer without providing effective supervision for a particular student. We study how to construct traces that improve learning beyond answer-only supervision by considering both their intermediate content and their accessibility to the target learner. We introduce ReDiST, a student-conditioned trace-construction and distillation framework for evidence-rich reasoning. Starting from the student's own attempts, ReDiST revises answer-correct drafts against the supplied evidence and repairs unsuccessful drafts with additional guidance from the verified answer. A frozen student-matched reader screens and ranks original and edited candidates using answer recovery and verified-answer probability, given the question, evidence, and candidate trace. We distill the selected targets while balancing trace and final-answer supervision with an auxiliary answer loss. Construction and selection occur offline, and inference uses only the distilled student. Experiments on question-answering benchmarks show that ReDiST can improve both source-task and cross-benchmark performance over answer-only, original-trace, and the evaluated trace-selection and rewriting baselines. Across supervision recipes, performance rankings can differ between source and transfer benchmarks, highlighting the importance of evaluating trace teaching utility across distributions.
#05Oct 16, 2026
stat.ML
Task-aware Kernel Stein certificates for Rényi differential privacy
Leoni Carla Wirth, Tara Trautwein, Gesine Reinert
Rènyi differential privacy, based on Rènyi divergence, has become a notion of choice for privacy guarantees. However, outside the Gaussian setting, Rènyi divergence can be difficult to compute. In particular, Rènyi differential privacy guarantees that exploit task-specific information, as in Rènyi Pufferfish privacy, can be challenging. Here we use kernel Stein discrepancies based on escort distributions to provide certificates for Rènyi differential privacy. By designing the kernel to focus on the relevant privacy directions, we also derive task-aware privacy certificates. We provide exact identities for Gaussian and Laplace mechanisms and bounds for exponential mechanisms, with separate task-aware guarantees. A real data set example illustrates how the protected comparison set and the released subspace jointly determine the resulting certificates.