#01Jul 20, 2026
cs.LG
Causal Discovery on Irregular Time Series
Martim Penim, Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Jacopo Bono and 3 more
Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data. However, many real-world tasks require dealing with irregularly sampled streams of events, such as sensor streams, healthcare data, and financial transactions. In this work, we propose an extension of PCMCI+, a state-of-the-art method for causal discovery on regular multivariate time series, to allow for handling irregular time series. Instead of modelling causal relations through fixed-lag dependencies, our method aggregates causal influence over predefined temporal windows. We evaluate our method on synthetic irregular event streams with known causal structures under different signal-to-noise ratios, showing that it consistently recovers the underlying causal graph and substantially outperforms the standard PCMCI+ on irregularly sampled data.
#02Jul 20, 2026
econ.EM
Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference
Masahiro Kato, Taka Kato
We propose one-step and two-step methods for policy learning with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We formulate RAG-based action selection under the potential outcome framework. In the two-step method, vector search retrieves action-specific neighboring evidence in an embedding space, the generator estimates conditional expected outcomes or their contrasts, and a plug-in rule selects an action. This formulation connects action-specific vector search with nearest-neighbor matching in causal inference. We decompose the regret of the two-step method into candidate-generation regret and within-candidate choice regret, and we bound the latter using prediction-error guarantees for nearest-neighbor estimators and transformers. We evaluate the one-step method directly as a policy because its intermediate computation is unobserved.
#03Jul 20, 2026
cs.GR
EVOLVE: Efficient Learned Volume Compression with Variable-Rate Encoding on a Cross-Domain Database
Kaiyuan Tang, Maizhe Yang, Chaoli Wang
Large-scale scientific simulations generate volumetric data at rates that far outpace advances in storage and network bandwidth, making effective lossy compression increasingly critical. However, conventional compressors often struggle to preserve fine structural details at high compression ratios (CRs), and implicit neural representations (INRs) require costly per-volume optimization and produce models with fixed CRs. To respond, we present EVOLVE, an autoencoder (AE)-based volume-compression framework that targets high CRs for offline compression, with three key contributions. First, we construct a large-scale cross-domain database of 6,376 volumes from 21 scientific simulations, curated via perceptual hashing to ensure diversity, enabling the optimized model to extract features that generalize across volumes within the covered scientific simulation domains. Second, we reexamine the design space of AE-based compressors and incorporate several macro- and micro-designs into a vanilla AE to develop EVOLVE, which substantially improves the expressive power and compression capability. Third, we develop a learnable gain mechanism with a three-stage training strategy to enable variable-rate encoding, allowing a single model to support continuous CR adjustment at inference time. Experiments on multiple unseen scientific simulation datasets demonstrate that EVOLVE achieves substantially higher CRs than conventional compressors at comparable reconstruction quality, while delivering compression speeds that are orders of magnitude faster than INR-based methods, highlighting its promise as a strong alternative for compressing scientific data. The code, model weights, and results are available on our project page at https://evolve-vis.github.io.
#04Jul 20, 2026
cs.LG
Totally Positive Matrices and the Highest-Order Coefficients of the Characteristic Polynomial
Tiago Closs, Leandro Farina
We investigate the extent to which totally positive matrices can be distinguished through the highest-order coefficients of their characteristic polynomials. To identify the most informative coefficients, we also employed neural-network classifiers together with feature-attribution methods. Using datasets built from several structured totally positive families, including products of positive bidiagonal matrices, Vandermonde matrices, and Cauchy matrices, we find that the coefficients (a_{n-1}, a_{n-2}, a_{n-3}) already contain strong discriminatory information for separating totally positive from non-totally positive matrices in dimensions 5, 10, and 30. The resulting separation is markedly nonlinear and admits a natural geometric description in the corresponding three-dimensional coefficient space by means of Mahalanobis ellipsoids. These ellipsoids enclose the totally positive samples while excluding most non-totally positive ones. Moreover, different structured totally positive families exhibit distinct ellipsoidal signatures, and the separation between these signatures increases with the dimension. These observations lead us to formulate a conjecture on the geometric separation of structured totally positive families in the space determined by the three highest-order characteristic coefficients.
#05Jul 20, 2026
cs.LG
The Calibration Channel Determines the Bayes-Error Proxy: An Exact Law for Temperature-Induced Distortion
Shreyas Pradeepkumar Khandale
The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al. estimates the irreducible error of a binary task directly from probability-valued labels. Recent work by Ushio et al. showed that this estimator is fragile when the probabilities are not the true posterior: even perfectly calibrated soft labels can yield a substantially inaccurate estimate, and they propose isotonic calibration as a consistent remedy. We complement that line of work by characterizing exactly how the most widely used post-hoc calibration map -- temperature scaling -- distorts the proxy. We prove an exact, model-free identity reducing the temperature-scaled proxy to the classifier's margin distribution, from which we obtain (i) strict monotonicity in the temperature and (ii) a continuous bijection from the temperature axis onto the open interval (0, 1/2), so that a fixed classifier -- with fixed decisions and fixed 0-1 error -- can be made to report any proxy value whatsoever. Under a Gaussian model of the logits we further derive a two-parameter closed form for the entire proxy-versus-temperature curve. Across CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST, and SVHN (eight binary tasks), the proxy varies by 56x to 980x at constant test error, the closed form reproduces the empirical curve to within 0.018, and the calibration temperature that minimizes the expected calibration error does not coincide with any stable proxy value. Our results give a precise, predictive account of the distortion whose existence motivates calibration-based remedies, and they reinforce the practical recommendation that a proxy value is meaningful only together with the mechanism that produced its probabilities.