#01Oct 29, 2026
cs.AI
Efficient Scalable Oversight via Rewinding
Ziyi Guan, Yael Tauman Kalai, Ron Rothblum and 1 more
Scalable oversight asks how a weak verifier can check the outputs of computations performed by more powerful AI systems. One proposed approach uses relativizing interactive proofs, in which a weak verifier checks the output of a complex oracle-aided computation by interacting with one or more powerful provers. A prominent example is debate, which is highly efficient but assumes that one of two powerful AI models, or provers, is truthful. For certain classes of oracle-aided computations, this assumption can be removed, but at substantially greater computational cost. In this work, we introduce \emph{rewindable interactive proofs} (RIPs), a new model of relativizing interactive proofs for scalable oversight. In an RIP, the verifier may rewind the prover to an earlier state of the interaction and continue from there. This is possible when the prover is an AI model, since the verifier can save a snapshot of the model's state and later restore it. We construct a relativizing RIP for computations whose outputs are robust to changing a small fraction of oracle answers. Our construction is more efficient than prior relativizing proofs that do not assume a truthful prover, and it uses no cryptography. In our construction the honest prover runs in time linear in that of the original computation, and the verifier, after a one-time preprocessing step, runs in time nearly linear in the input length (which can be much smaller than the computation itself). We implement our protocol, report a preliminary MNIST experiment, and show that an RIP can be faster than a state-of-the-art deployed proof system. RIPs may be of independent interest. Rewinding is possible whenever the verifier controls the prover's machine, for example when the prover runs on trusted hardware or in a virtual machine whose state can be checkpointed.
#02Oct 29, 2026
physics.ao-ph
From extreme weather to agricultural consequences with agentic AI
Minghan Yu, Mengyu Dai, Yixin Wen and 1 more
Extreme weather is forecast days ahead, yet its consequences for agriculture remain hard to predict: a forecast says where a storm will strike, not which crops will suffer or how much is at risk, and the records that could tell span many sources. We present WxCrop, the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first that combines weather and agricultural information to predict crop loss reliably for past and forecast dates. We demonstrate it in Florida on hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated on insurance records for each, and the same procedure extends to other hazards and areas. Three checks show reliability: the hurricane index detects recorded cyclone days with an AUC of 0.98, recorded losses in held-out years are reproduced to within 2%, and independent production records confirm the county rankings (rank correlation 0.63). Users ask the agent for each crop group's loss as a fraction of expected season value, every number sourced, so that governments, growers and scientists respond to agricultural disasters quickly.
#03Oct 29, 2026
math.ST
Self-regularization and structural adaptation of NPMLE for Gaussian mixture models in all dimensions
Yanjun Han, Yandi Shen, Yihong Wu
We establish structural properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for $d$-dimensional Gaussian mixtures whose means lie in a hypercube. We show that, with high probability, the NPMLE based on $n$ independent observations self-regularizes by fitting a mixture model with $O((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^d)$ components, achieving the optimal model complexity without explicit model selection. Furthermore, the NPMLE exhibits a structural adaptation property: For data drawn from a finite mixture, the number of fitted components is bounded in probability as $n\to\infty$. Our proof applies a multivariate Jensen-type bound to control the typical number of critical points of the KKT function associated with the first-order optimality conditions. The key step is to lower bound its gradient norm uniformly on complex spheres. We establish this lower bound by decomposing the KKT function into an empirical fluctuation term and a relative density estimation error term, combining small-ball probability estimates for the former with polynomial approximation and Hellinger error bounds for the latter.
#04Oct 29, 2026
cs.CV
Difficulty Calibration Across Time for Membership Inference in Diffusion Models
Michael Joseph, Yedid Hoshen
Modern diffusion models are trained on massive datasets that often include copyrighted or private images. Membership inference attacks (MIAs) address this by testing whether a given image was in a model's training set. The standard approach scores an image by its reconstruction loss and flags low-loss images as members. This often fails because some images are simply easier to reconstruct than others, so a simple unseen image can score a lower loss than a complex training image. Difficulty calibration separates memorization from how difficult an image is to begin with. We show how to calibrate along two axes of time: training time and diffusion time. First, across training time, we introduce Reference-Model Calibration (RMC), which compares a fine-tuned model's loss against an earlier checkpoint. This cleanly isolates newly memorized data and gives near-perfect auditing, even without text captions. Since earlier checkpoints are not always available, we next present Temporal Self-Calibration (TSC), which calibrates across diffusion time using only a single model. Our key observation is that an image's difficulty persists across noise levels, whereas memorization is localized in time. By comparing the loss at a target timestep against neighboring timesteps from the same model, TSC attenuates image difficulty using the model's own trajectory. Empirically, our methods beat the state of the art by a wide margin, and unlike most existing attacks, generalize across different model parameterizations such as $x$-, $v$-, and $ε$-prediction models. Code is available at https://github.com/MichaelJoseph777/TSC.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
An ODE-based Sampler for Discrete Diffusion Models
Samson Gourevitch, Yazid Janati, Eric Moulines and 3 more
The marginals of a continuous diffusion model can be reproduced by a deterministic ordinary differential equation (ODE), known as the probability flow ODE, which provides a foundation for accelerated sampling and consistency distillation. In this paper we address the question whether an analogous formulation exists for discrete diffusion models and answer it affirmatively by introducing exponential residual flows (ERFs). Our framework augments the discrete state with a continuous residual variable for each token and position. These residuals evolve deterministically according to piecewise-defined ODEs whose vector fields depend on the current discrete state and the forward and backward rate matrices of the prescribed diffusion model. The discrete state changes whenever a residual reaches zero. We prove that this construction preserves the marginals of the original diffusion. We derive a practical discretization of our sampler and specialize it to masked and uniform diffusion. The deterministic trajectories of ERFs support consistency distillation and yield empirical improvements over previous approaches across a variety of benchmarks including code and text generation tasks.