#01Aug 4, 2026
cs.CL
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament
Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li and 1 more
Benchmarks that measure the forecasting ability of large language models are almost always retrospective: the event has happened, the answer is somewhere on the Web, and the evaluation must defend itself against memorisation. We report the opposite design. Over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, six frontier LLMs -- all with extended thinking and native server-side web search -- were asked before every kickoff, one match at a time, to fill in a seven-market prediction card for all 104 matches, plus 12 group winners and a pre-tournament outright pool; no answer existed when the question was asked, so the evaluation is leakage-free by construction rather than by filtering, and the frozen archive holds 4,494 scored predictions. What the tournament establishes is a set of behaviours the six systems share. On match outcome they average 63.9%, level with backing the bookmaker's favourite -- which is in fact what they usually do. They agree with one another far more often than they are right, so a majority vote adds nothing. They under-commit to draws and to goals, and crowd their scoreline picks onto a single prototypical result. Accuracy tracks how lopsided a fixture is rather than how much is known about it: it collapses in the closest ties, where the dossiers are richest, while questions about the tournament as a whole are answered well. On this task the current generation of frontier systems is not sharply differentiated: the standings hold up at the top and the bottom across the run and churn in the middle, and the margins stay narrow throughout. The briefing dossiers, fixtures and official results are released as a benchmark, together with the scoring code.
#02Aug 4, 2026
stat.ML
Robust Low-Tubal-Rank Tensor Completion under Cross-Concentrated Sampling
Hanqin Cai, Longxiu Huang, Jing Qin and 1 more
Tensor cross-concentrated sampling (t-CCS) bridges entrywise sampling and t-CUR slice-wise sampling by observing entries only within selected horizontal and lateral slices. Existing t-CCS completion methods, however, assume that the observations are free of gross corruption. In this work, we study robust recovery of a third-order low-tubal-rank tensor from partial t-CCS observations contaminated by sparse, arbitrarily large outliers. We propose Robust Iterative t-CUR (R-ItCUR), a tensor-native algorithm that partitions the sampled tensor cross into two exterior blocks and an intersection block, applies adaptive blockwise Welsch correction for outlier suppression, and updates the low-rank component through projected blockwise gradient descent. By operating directly on the sampled cross, R-ItCUR avoids reconstructing the full tensor throughout the iterations, resulting in substantial memory and computational savings. Experiments on synthetic tensors, cardiac MRI data, and three-dimensional seismic data demonstrate accurate recovery and strong robustness to sparse gross corruptions. The results further highlight the importance of explicitly exploiting the cross-concentrated sampling structure in robust tensor completion.
#03Aug 4, 2026
cs.CV
JoyAI-Video-Edit: Real-Time Open-Ended Video Editing with Autoregressive Diffusion
Yicheng Xiao, Wenxun Dai, Xinran Qin and 22 more
Real-time video editing requires low-latency causal generation with bounded computational resources while preserving source fidelity and long-term temporal consistency. We present JoyAI-Video-Edit, a 16B-parameter autoregressive diffusion framework for real-time, open-ended video editing without access to future frames or a predefined video duration. Our method combines chunk-wise autoregressive adaptation, Source-Anchored Distribution Matching Distillation (SA-DMD), and Long-Horizon Autoregressive Distillation to reduce train--inference mismatch, preserve source fidelity during two-step generation, and mitigate accumulated temporal drift. Extensive automatic and human evaluations show that JoyAI-Video-Edit substantially outperforms existing streaming editors and remains competitive with strong offline systems on both short and long videos. The complete system achieves end-to-end 720p video editing at approximately 30 FPS on a single Nvidia B200 GPU. Code is available at https://github.com/jd-opensource/JoyAI-Video-Edit.
#04Aug 4, 2026
cs.CL
TurnSight: Turn-Level Hindsight Self-Distillation for Tool-Integrated Reasoning
Changle Qu, Sunhao Dai, Hengyi Cai and 4 more
Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) enables LLMs to solve complex tasks through iterative tool interactions. However, existing reinforcement learning methods often rely on trajectory-level supervision, limiting fine-grained credit assignment in long-horizon TIR scenarios. On-policy self-distillation offers denser signals through teacher branches with privileged context, but existing approaches typically derive such context from ground-truth answers or retrieved skills, which may not reflect the states actually visited by the agent. Moreover, token-level supervision fails to capture the turn-level structure of tool interactions. To address this, we propose TurnSight, a turn-level hindsight self-distillation framework that derives supervision directly from execution-conditioned hindsight. It then constructs multiple hindsight views with different lookahead horizons and selects reliable supervision through cross-horizon directional agreement. Finally, the selected hindsight signal is normalized across sibling rollouts and used to adaptively modulate RL advantages while preserving their original optimization direction. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of TurnSight. Our codes are available at https://github.com/quchangle1/TurnSight.
#05Aug 4, 2026
cs.CL
PAST-Bench: Benchmarking the Foundations of Recursive Self-Improvement in Personal Agents
Shuhan Xue, Zixin Ding, Yichen Shen and 6 more
Recursive self-improvement requires agents to turn accumulated experience into better future behavior. Personal AI agents offer a concrete setting for studying this capability because they retain preferences, task histories, tool routines, and learned skills across sessions. Yet whether retained experience actually improves them over time has not been systematically tested. We introduce PAST-Bench, a benchmark designed to isolate this question. Each agent runs through ordered sequences of fresh-session tasks under matched conditions that turn retained experience on and off. It spans 26 scenarios and 204 episodes across memory, procedural reuse, information gathering, and update. We report both later-task gains and whether those gains follow the intended save, retrieve, and update pathway. Across seven base models and four agent frameworks, improvement is real but uneven across capabilities. Agents with the same headline gain can differ markedly in whether that gain is supported by evidence of the intended pathway. Guided by these findings, we develop Hermes+, which extends Hermes with five targeted interventions across stages of the agent loop. Hermes+ raises the average gain from retained experience and provides clearer pathway evidence, with its strongest improvement on tasks requiring outdated state to be replaced, although the effect remains capability- and model-dependent. Together, PAST-Bench and Hermes+ provide an evaluation and diagnostic foundation for studying how persistent agents can progress from retaining experience to systematically improving through it. Code: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/PAST-Bench