#01Aug 4, 2026
cs.AI
A game theory for foundation models shows new paths to rational cooperation through similarity inference
Alexander Meulemans, Maciej Wołczyk, Marissa A. Weis and 11 more
As autonomous agents powered by foundation models are increasingly integrated into social and economic systems, understanding the principles governing their collective behavior is essential for ensuring safety and cooperation. Classical game theory, the dominant framework for modeling rational interaction, is built upon the assumption of `decoupled agency,' where agents treat their own decision-making as independent of the environment and other actors. Modern AI agents, however, jointly predict their own future actions alongside external observations. Here, we report a striking finding: when interacting in stylized social dilemmas, foundation model agents engaging in optimal planning consistently converge to stable cooperation, directly contradicting classical game-theoretic predictions of mutual defection. To understand this phenomenon, we introduce the `embedded Bayesian agent,' a theoretical model for foundation model agents. By shifting from decoupled to embedded agency, these agents model themselves as part of the universe they inhabit, maintaining epistemic uncertainty about their own decision-making algorithms. We show that by inferring whether others are behaviorally similar, an embedded agent treats its own deliberation during planning as evidence: a decision to cooperate predicts a similar decision by a similar partner. We formalize this mechanism of similarity inference through the `embedded equilibrium,' a novel solution concept replacing the Nash equilibrium to provide a foundational game theory for the social behavior of modern AI agents.
#02Aug 4, 2026
cs.LG
Muon Meets Mamba: Spectral Optimization for State Space Models
Arslan Battalov, Karim Kramin, Alexander Markotenko and 1 more
Muon is a recent optimizer that orthogonalizes the update to each weight matrix with a Newton-Schulz iteration, which performs steepest descent under the spectral norm. Almost all the evidence for it comes from Transformer models, and its behavior on state-space models is largely unreported. We compare Muon with AdamW on Mamba-2 130M under a controlled protocol that varies only which weight groups are trained with Muon. The benefit is localized. Muon on the output projection alone beats Muon on the input projection or on both. The advantage is mainly one of token efficiency. It holds on two corpora and two token budgets, and persists when training continues well past the compute-optimal point. Conditioning does not explain the gain. Muon lowers the condition number of whichever projection it trains, but the better-conditioned input projection is not the one that helps.
#03Aug 4, 2026
cs.CL
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament
Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li and 1 more
Benchmarks that measure the forecasting ability of large language models are almost always retrospective: the event has happened, the answer is somewhere on the Web, and the evaluation must defend itself against memorisation. We report the opposite design. Over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, six frontier LLMs -- all with extended thinking and native server-side web search -- were asked before every kickoff, one match at a time, to fill in a seven-market prediction card for all 104 matches, plus 12 group winners and a pre-tournament outright pool; no answer existed when the question was asked, so the evaluation is leakage-free by construction rather than by filtering, and the frozen archive holds 4,494 scored predictions. What the tournament establishes is a set of behaviours the six systems share. On match outcome they average 63.9%, level with backing the bookmaker's favourite -- which is in fact what they usually do. They agree with one another far more often than they are right, so a majority vote adds nothing. They under-commit to draws and to goals, and crowd their scoreline picks onto a single prototypical result. Accuracy tracks how lopsided a fixture is rather than how much is known about it: it collapses in the closest ties, where the dossiers are richest, while questions about the tournament as a whole are answered well. On this task the current generation of frontier systems is not sharply differentiated: the standings hold up at the top and the bottom across the run and churn in the middle, and the margins stay narrow throughout. The briefing dossiers, fixtures and official results are released as a benchmark, together with the scoring code.
#04Aug 4, 2026
cs.LG
Assessment of Conditional Diffusion Model for Synthetic Histopathology Image Generation
Seyed Kahaki, Shijie Li, Weijie Chen and 1 more
Synthetic histopathology image generation has emerged as an approach that may address data scarcity in computational pathology, yet current evaluation methodologies may not fully assess synthetic data quality for medical applications. This work investigates and addresses limitations in existing evaluation metrics, investigating an approach for assessing synthetic histopathology image quality through domain-specific metrics and downstream task validation. We show that conventional synthetic data evaluation metrics such as Frechet Inception Distance (FID) and Inception Score (IS) may have limitations when applied to histopathology images due to their reliance on ImageNet-pretrained feature extractors. To address these limitations, we propose for consideration modified FID and IS approaches utilizing foundation models pretrained on digital pathology datasets, supplemented by precision-recall based metrics as part of an additional quality assessment. Using conditional denoising diffusion models trained on four benchmark datasets, with a two-step training approach, we generated synthetic datasets with systematically varied quality characteristics. We also measured the correlation between the synthetic data quality metrics with downstream nuclei segmentation performance using common metrics including the aggregated Jaccard index (AJI+) and the Dice coefficient. The study results suggest that pathology-specific metrics may provide improved discriminative power. Specifically, the modified Inception Score indicates higher correlation with downstream task performance (r=0.6096 with AJI+, p=0.0122), compared to the original IS (r=0.0708, p=0.7944). Our observations indicate that increasing the variety of generated training data has a higher positive correlation with segmentation model performance than improving the visual fidelity of individual generated images.
#05Aug 4, 2026
cs.LG
Latent Reward Registers for Diffusion Preference Alignment
Yuanshen Guan, Zipeng Feng, Zhiwei Xiong and 1 more
Aligning diffusion models with human preferences usually relies on a sparse terminal reward evaluated on the final generated samples, presenting a severe temporal credit-assignment challenge across the multi-step denoising process. We propose Latent Reward Registers, a mechanism that estimates terminal preference directly from intermediate noisy latents by prepending learnable, position-free register tokens to the input sequence of a frozen Diffusion Transformer (DiT). This independent readout mechanism extracts latent reward evidence without altering the generator's hidden states or velocity field. The resulting dense, differentiable reward signal throughout the full denoising process facilitates two alignment strategies. For training, Reward-Gradient On-Policy Distillation (RG-OPD) distills reward-guided updates along on-policy trajectories, bypassing the computationally expensive rollouts of standard policy gradients. For inference, Reward-Guided Sampling (RGS) steers trajectories via magnitude-matched reward gradients without parameter updates. Empirically, at high noise levels (u = 0.8), the registers reach the highest pairwise accuracy among the evaluated latent reward models. Furthermore, RG-OPD outperforms online reinforcement learning baselines while reducing GPU hours by up to 33x, and RGS establishes a new state-of-the-art among training-free methods, strictly enhancing both alignment and perceptual metrics. Code and weights are available at https://github.com/Guanys-dar/latent-reward-register