#01Oct 27, 2026
cs.CV
Zero-Shot Multimodal Event Spotting in Soccer Broadcasts
Sadia Kamal, Mahmudul Hasan, Tony Braskich
Automatic soccer event spotting supports highlight generation, video indexing, and sports analytics, but existing methods depend on large annotated datasets and soccer-specific training. We present a zero-shot framework that detects, classifies, and temporally localizes events in full-length soccer broadcasts without task-specific parameter training. Each match is segmented into overlapping clips represented by a compact visual storyboard and the aligned commentary transcript, which a general-purpose multimodal model processes jointly. On three manually annotated matches containing 130 events, the best configuration achieves 72.0% F1@5s and outperforms SoccerNet-trained CALF and NetVLAD++ in a cross-dataset setting, while the storyboard representation reduces inference cost by 72% compared with individual frames. We further analyze the effects of model family, input representation, and prompt optimization, and introduce an evidence-grounded excitement-scoring stage that ranks detected events with natural-language explanations for highlight selection.
#02Oct 27, 2026
stat.ME
Agentic Distributional Regression: Conditional Density Estimation through Agent-Written Programs
Lorenzo Tedesco
In this paper we propose a method for estimating conditional densities from an iid sample using a language-model agent. The agent writes the estimator as a short program that, for each covariate value, returns the estimated conditional distribution of the response. The program is built from a library of probability distributions, so the returned law can be a parametric distribution, a mixture or a multivariate factorization, with parameters given by explicit functions of the covariates. Since the number of operations and constants in the program is limited, the fitted conditional density is a formula that can be inspected and evaluated independently of the agent, while the choice of the model structure and of the fitting procedure is left to the agent. We call this approach agentic distributional regression (ADR). Treating the returned program as a random conditional density estimator, we derive a finite-sample error bound under explicit complexity and optimization assumptions, and an oracle inequality for selection using independent validation data. For a stably selected regular structure with sufficiently accurate fitting, we obtain asymptotic normality of the fitted constants. In simulation studies, on twelve real datasets and on a new dataset collected after the agents' training data, ADR with Claude Opus 5.5 has the best average performance among the methods considered.
#03Oct 27, 2026
cs.AI
Timestral
Adrien Petralia, Alexandre Gavaudan, Artjom Joosen and 353 more
We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with three ingredients: Decoupled Horizon Forecasting (DHF), which separates prediction tokens from the causally encoded context, so that longer horizons are trained without masking context and each observed value is both a forecast target and context for later forecasts; a covariate framework that natively supports known-future covariates within a causal architecture; and a two-stage pipeline that pretrains exclusively on a diverse, large-scale synthetic corpus before post-training on a mix of real and synthetic data with extended context. This report describes the model design and its benchmark results. Weights for all four models are available on Hugging Face and inference code on GitHub.
#04Oct 27, 2026
cs.LG
Understanding the limits of latent world models
Rodrigo Gonzalez Laiz, Steffen Schneider
World models are widely proposed as core components for enabling agents to reason over long temporal and spatial horizons. Yet current evaluations often emphasize task performance while providing limited insight into whether learned world models acquire predictive latent dynamics that reflect the underlying structure of the environment. Here we introduce the concept of faithful latent world models as an equivariance condition between the environment's transition map and the learned latent dynamics. We propose latent rollout consistency (LRC) as a metric to evaluate action-conditioned latent prediction. Strikingly, we find that across the studied state of the art latent world models, none solves the task by actually faithfully modeling the dynamics of the environment.
#05Oct 27, 2026
cs.LG
Pneuma: A Large-Scale Real-World Time Series Benchmark for Commercial Aircraft Predictive Maintenance
Jiafeng Lin, Yutian Zhang, Huan Zhang and 5 more
Predictive maintenance is vital for commercial aviation, yet progress remains hindered by the lack of public, large-scale real-world datasets. As a result, most methods are developed and evaluated on proprietary data, limiting reproducibility. We introduce Pneuma, the first publicly available large-scale benchmark for predictive maintenance using onboard time series from in-service commercial aircraft. Built around bleed air systems, Pneuma contains over 920 million multivariate time steps across four aircraft types and 9 verified fault scenarios, directly aligned with real maintenance logs. The dataset exhibits key real-world challenges, including substantial class imbalance, subtle fault evolution patterns, and significant variance across aircraft configurations. We structure the benchmark around three tasks: multivariate forecasting, supervised fault classification, and unsupervised anomaly detection, with labels derived from actual maintenance records. Under unified settings, we evaluate over 25 models from four methodological families on 9 carefully curated subsets. The results reveal that even strong contemporary models struggle with subtle fault signatures. Further analyses show consistent gains from additional in-context examples and multivariate inference, while forecasting quality is strongly associated with anomaly detection performance. Together, these findings provide practical insights into effectively modeling complex real-world aviation time series. We hope Pneuma will serve as a rigorous and reproducible foundation for advancing data-driven predictive maintenance toward real-world deployment in commercial aviation.