#01Oct 27, 2026
cs.AI
Rare, Relevant, and Still Wrong: How Memory Fails LLM Group Decisions
Anouar Imel, Imad Charradi, Abderrahman Sghir and 1 more
When an LLM group's discussion is compressed into a short memory for a final decision maker, what should the memory keep? Two natural heuristics keep the rarest claims or the claims relevant to the decision criteria. On hidden-profile tasks both look attractive, because how widely a fact is held is confounded with whether it helps. We introduce CrossProfile, a diagnostic benchmark of 60 templates with automatically verified answer keys, in which the ownership of supporting, decoy, and irrelevant facts is crossed while their text is held fixed (480 tasks). Across Qwen2.5-7B, Llama-3.1-8B, and two DeepSeek models, both heuristics fail in predictable places. Selecting by relevance readmits decoys, because decoys are on topic: even a perfect relevance filter loses 23 to 31 points to rarest-first selection in the classic hidden-profile configuration. Rarest-first selection is no better than random selection on average and wins only where the rare facts happen to be the useful ones. In both cases accuracy follows the balance of evidence the memory keeps, not the policy that kept it. The decision model adds a third failure, a form of social proof: it gives extra weight to facts attributed to many agents. Removing the attribution tags, or reassigning them at random with line order fixed, raises accuracy in the classic configuration by 13 to 24 points. In natural discussions the evidence is lost before any memory acts: the complete transcript yields lower accuracy than no notes at all.
#02Oct 27, 2026
cs.AI
What Improves During Pretraining? Tracking Knowledge Acquisition with Point-in-Time Models
Chang Su, Bin Wu, Emine Yilmaz and 1 more
Language models pretrained on web corpora collected over multiple years learn both general and domain-specific knowledge. How these different kinds of knowledge are learned as pretraining progresses remains unclear. Recent point-in-time models trained on web snapshots from different years provide a way to probe how knowledge prevalence varies over time. Using these models, we propose a temporal variability score (TVS), defined as the coefficient of variation of an item's negative log-likelihood across models. A higher score suggests that the knowledge may be less consistently represented across years of web text. We evaluate six benchmarks covering diverse topics using six models from multiple open-source model families. We find that low- and high-TVS items are learned similarly early in training, but high-TVS items improve faster later on. At the end of the pretraining run, high-TVS items outperform low-TVS items in 34 of 36 model-benchmark settings, with an average advantage of 7.3 points of chance-normalized accuracy. This pattern is most robust on knowledge-intensive tasks, even when comparing items of similar difficulty. Our findings reveal differences in how knowledge is learned over the course of pretraining, with temporal variability providing a diagnostic of these learning dynamics beyond aggregate benchmark scores.
#03Oct 27, 2026
cs.LG
GAS-PFN: Graph-Aware Spatiotemporal Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Traffic Forecasting
Joseph Natter, Long Vu, Yifan Zhang and 3 more
Traffic forecasting requires modeling complex temporal dynamics and the spatial dependencies imposed by road topology. Supervised graph-based models achieve strong performance, but are often trained for a particular dataset and sensor graph, making deployment to new or evolving networks costly. Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) offer a zero-shot alternative by learning in-context inference from synthetic task priors, which provide an explicit mechanism for encoding domain-specific assumptions. Existing forecasting PFNs, however, do not explicitly represent the graph-structured dependencies governing traffic dynamics. To combine graph-aware traffic modeling with zero-shot adaptation, we introduce the Graph-Aware Spatiotemporal Prior-Data Fitted Network (GAS-PFN). GAS-PFN incorporates sampled road topology into its synthetic task prior through random-walk diffusion, teaching the model to learn graph-coupled dynamics during pretraining. Its co-designed inference architecture uses two mask-conditioned passes through a shared Transformer backbone to separately model sensor-specific temporal dynamics and spatiotemporal interactions among neighboring sensors before integrating their representations for prediction. This design enables GAS-PFN to use target-network structure and context without parameter updates. Across six benchmarks at the 90-minute horizon, GAS-PFN reduces MSE by 34.0% on average relative to TimePFN, its closest PFN-based predecessor. It also reduces MSE by 27.7% on average relative to four recent industry-developed general-purpose zero-shot forecasters. In this comparison, all models receive 90 minutes of contiguous recent history, and any additional context is drawn from each dataset's chronological training split. These results indicate that aligning PFN priors and inference architectures with graph structure improves in-context learning for zero-shot traffic forecasting.
#04Oct 27, 2026
cs.RO
ThinkWorld: World Imagination Reinforces Chain-of-Dynamics Reasoning
Chaehyun Kim, Chi-Pin Huang, Jisoo Kim and 4 more
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have made substantial progress in robotic manipulation, but their generalization remains constrained by the diversity and coverage of action-labeled robot demonstrations. Human videos provide much broader behavioral and environmental experience, while learning from them faces a fundamental trade-off between scalable data and explicit action grounding. We introduce ThinkWorld, a VLA learning framework that grounds action reasoning in world dynamics and strengthens it through reinforcement learning with world imagination. ThinkWorld represents each action thought as a Chain-of-Dynamics (CoD), a sequence of discrete motion tokens that captures the intermediate dynamics connecting the current world to a future state and serves as a common action representation across embodiments. We first initialize CoD with action-labeled demonstrations, then predict the future induced by each CoD and reinforce those whose predictions better match the observed outcome. This enables videos without action annotations to provide direct supervision from observed state transitions, allowing human and robot experience to refine the same reasoning space. Experiments in simulation and on real robots demonstrate effective human-to-robot transfer and strong generalization to unseen tasks and environments.
#05Oct 27, 2026
cs.RO
Kinematic Constraint-Referenced Evaluation for Articulated Object Manipulation
Baptiste Bonin, Caro Strickland, Audrey Durand
Manipulation policies are evaluated predominantly by binary task success, which cannot tell whether the commanded gesture is the one the object's kinematics admit. We introduce Constraint-Referenced Strategy (CRS), which projects the commanded end-effector twist onto the object's joint axis, separating progress along the joint from off-constraint waste. CRS requires a joint model and a joint-following scripted controller derived from it, but no recorded demonstration or learned judge. On 74 simulated articulated objects, success registers three transfer failures as lower rates but attributes none, while the two CRS channels give each a distinct signature. A door-trained behavior-cloning policy opens drawers in 59 of 110 episodes, and in these passes it commands about $40\times$ the off-axis rotation of a drawer-trained policy's passes ($1.27$ vs.\ $0.032$~rad/s). Relative to a scripted controller scored with the same axis, CRS verdicts are unchanged under joint-axis errors up to $30^\circ$; absolute thresholds tolerate about $8^\circ$.