#01Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
Physics-Based Deep Spatiotemporal Hyperlocal Radar Nowcasting with a Multi-Variable U-Net for High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasting
Akshay Sunil, Muhammed Rashid, Raja Sekhar Sivaraju and 2 more
Precipitation nowcasting over the immediate 10-90 min period is important for flood management and real-time decision-making in urban regions. Conventional short-range forecasting with high-resolution numerical weather prediction requires frequent data assimilation, model initialization, and spin-up, introducing computational latency. Machine learning provides an alternative by learning storm evolution directly from high-frequency observations and producing forecasts quickly after training. This is particularly relevant for Mumbai, India, where monsoon convection, land-sea interactions, and localized intense rainfall make short-term prediction difficult. Here, we develop a compact radar-only nowcasting framework that combines multi-elevation reflectivity, Doppler radial velocity, and radial-velocity-gradient proxy features within an encoder-decoder U-Net. Using the most recent radar volume scan, the model predicts 12 future composite reflectivity fields at 7.5-min intervals up to 90 min lead time. The derived velocity magnitude, divergence-like, directional-shear, and vorticity-like channels represent kinematic signatures associated with convergence and boundary interactions without requiring full wind-field retrieval. A high-reflectivity attention module improves sensitivity to convective cores, and physics-guided attribution examines whether the learned sensitivities are meteorologically meaningful. The model is trained using Mumbai Doppler radar observations from May to August 2023 and evaluated on temporally independent events. At 90 min lead time, Critical Success Index values are 0.437, 0.332, and 0.193 for $\geq$10, $\geq$20, and $\geq$30 dBZ thresholds, respectively. Compared with persistence, the model gives lower RMSE and higher spatial correlation at longer lead times. Once trained, it runs on a standard computer, generating nowcasts within seconds for real-time use.
#02Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
The Honest Quorum Problem: Epistemic Byzantine Fault Tolerance for Agentic Infrastructure
Jun He, Deying Yu
State machine replication (SMR) and Byzantine fault-tolerant (BFT) consensus guarantee agreement despite a bounded number of arbitrary, colluding faulty participants. However, these guarantees rely on participants outside this set correctly executing the protocol's transition semantics. Agentic validators expose a weaker boundary: an authenticated, responsive, non-equivocating, and protocol-compliant reasoning participant may still endorse a semantically invalid transition due to reasoning errors. We call this failure mode an epistemic fault, and the collective phenomenon the Honest Quorum Problem (where "honest" means protocol-compliant, not semantically correct). Such a quorum can satisfy ordinary checks while forming a certificate for an invalid transition. Thus, agreement alone does not guarantee semantic validity or execution safety. Furthermore, because agentic validators often share model weights, training distributions, prompts, or toolchains, they are highly susceptible to correlated epistemic faults. We define Epistemic Byzantine Fault Tolerance (EBFT), a fault-tolerance model for agentic infrastructure and post-deterministic distributed systems. EBFT augments the conventional Byzantine fault bound with two separate, confidence-indexed quantities: $e_δ$ bounds coherent invalid endorsements outside the Byzantine set, and $u_ε$ bounds unusable validator support that degrades liveness. These quantities characterize semantic safety risk and liveness degradation independently. We derive quorum-threshold conditions for semantic validity, consensus agreement, liveness, and feasible threshold selection, and outline a calibration methodology for estimating these budgets. We show that adding nominally distinct agents improves fault tolerance only when it measurably reduces the upper-tail concentration of invalid endorsements or unusable support.
#03Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
When Does Muon Help Agentic Reinforcement Learning?
Kai Ruan, Jinghao Lin, Zihe Huang and 4 more
Muon is competitive with AdamW in large-scale pre-training, but its value for reinforcement-learning (RL) post-training remains unclear. We study vanilla Muon in sparse-reward agentic RL through matched single-seed comparisons with AdamW on ALFWorld using Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct. Under Group-in-Group Policy Optimization (GiGPO), applying Muon only to hidden weight matrices raises final-window validation success from 0.290 to 0.546 (+88%); high-rate AdamW controls retain no post-update success. The effect depends on the advantage estimator and learning rate. At 3e-5, Muon improves GRPO from 0.161 to 0.268, whereas GraphGPO's late-window gap narrows near saturation. At 1e-5, GraphGPO Muon reaches 0.901, raises normalized validation AUC from 0.399 to 0.556, and reaches 0.5 and 0.75 success 30 and 60 updates earlier, respectively. These exploratory results show that Muon can benefit agentic RL and motivate studying the policy optimizer, advantage estimator, and learning rate jointly. Multi-seed and cross-task validation remain open.
#04Jul 17, 2026
stat.ML
Cluster-Aware Matching via Laplacian Optimal Transport
Gabriel Samberg, YoonHaeng Hur, Yuehaw Khoo and 1 more
In many applications of matching, the point clouds to be matched are not merely unstructured sets of points but rather samples from distributions with an intrinsic cluster structure. In such cases, as individual points are often interchangeable within a coherent region, finding a robust region-to-region alignment is more desirable than establishing a precise point-to-point correspondence. To this end, we propose a novel approach for cluster-aware matching based on Laplacian Optimal Transport (LapOT). The key idea is to regularize the optimal transport problem with quadratic Laplacian terms constructed from similarity graphs of the point clouds, which encourages the optimal coupling to respect the cluster structure of both point sets. We also introduce Refined Simultaneous Clustering (RSC), a method that leverages the cluster-aware coupling obtained from LapOT to produce consistent partitions across the point sets, which can overcome the limitations of independent clustering and yield more stable and interpretable results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through theoretical analysis and empirical experiments, showing that LapOT indeed produces cluster-aware matching that leads to more consistent and meaningful alignments between point clouds.
#05Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
Improving Improved Kernel PLS
Ole-Christian Galbo Engstrøm
Improved Kernel Partial Least Squares (IKPLS) algorithms 1 and 2 are among the fastest PLS calibration algorithms. This article focuses on two shared steps, the computation of the $\mathbf{X}$ rotations, $\mathbf{R}$, and the $\mathbf{Y}$ loadings, $\mathbf{Q}$, and accelerates both. For $\mathbf{R}$, term-by-term accumulation is replaced by a direct evaluation strategy that requires the same number of multiplications but parallelizes better on modern hardware. For $\mathbf{Q}$, I identify - to the best of my knowledge, for the first time - equivalences showing that each $\mathbf{Y}$ loading is obtainable, up to explicitly derived constants, from quantities already computed earlier in the same iteration, and I exploit them in IKPLS to reduce the cost of each loading from $Θ\left(KM\right)$ to $Θ\left(M\right)$ operations whenever $M = 1$ or $2 \leq M < K$, with $K$ predictor variables (number of columns in $\mathbf{X}$) and $M$ response variables (number of columns in $\mathbf{Y}$). Both improvements provably yield exactly the same $\mathbf{W}$, $\mathbf{P}$, $\mathbf{Q}$, $\mathbf{R}$, and $\mathbf{T}$ as the original algorithms. Benchmarks with NumPy (CPU) and JAX (GPU) show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude for the isolated steps and of approximately $2\times$ (CPU) and $6\times$ (GPU) for entire fits. Both improvements are implemented in the free, open-source Python package \texttt{ikpls}.